Mariners Takeaways: Rotation falls flat, bats can't string things together in ALCS
It was a nightmare ending for the M's that was unfortunately expected, but losing the ALCS like they did goes far beyond a blowup at the end of Game 7
The Mariners’ first World Series berth will have to wait — if it ever comes. Seattle, after jumping out to a 2-0 series lead, dropped four of the next five games to the Blue Jays, sending Toronto to its first Fall Classic in over 30 years.
The Mariners were right there — seriously, right there. The team was nine outs away from a pennant with a two-run lead at 3-1. Bryan Woo, who tossed two innings of shutout ball across the fifth and sixth, started the seventh and … issued a leadoff walk to the No. 7 hitter. Then there was a single by the No. 8 hitter. And then there was a sacrifice bunt to get the tying run in scoring position with one out. And instead of Andres Munoz or even Matt Brash, Dan Wilson turned to Eduard Bazardo, who promptly gave up a three-run shot to former Astro and longtime Mariners adversary George Springer.
The thing about growing up following the Mariners is that you are well prepared for these moments, even if this was a first-time situation for the franchise. After the first two men reached and it was clear Munoz wasn’t being used, the best-case scenario was get out of the inning either with a one-run lead or even with the game tied, ideally while putting Springer on first base intentionally. Well, none of those things happened as Springer jumped on a middle-middle offering and sent it deep out to left-center. Seattle would have six more outs to play with at the dish, but no one reached base. It was clear the game ended in the seventh inning.
Like I said, that game ending the way it did felt so on the nose it’s almost comical. Given this is the Mariners we’re talking about, Game 7 was always going one of two ways:
A) They finally get it done — in heart attack fashion — and remove that dreaded label of “only team to never reach the World Series.”
B) Lose it in late, heart-breaking fashion.
Of course it was B — this is the Mariners. This is Lucy and Charlie Brown with the football. Seattle had the pennant pulled away by a former Astro who the fanbase boos relentlessly — deservedly so — whenever he steps up to the plate at T-Mobile Park. Springer was hit in the knee in Game 5 and the Jays used that as a rallying cry to bemoan Mariners fans. Their hero played through injury and got the last laugh. If you’re a Toronto fan, it’s a storybook finish. If you’re a Seattle fan, it’s the ultimate “villain wins” story.
Was winning the ALCS ever going to be easy? No. But considering this was maybe the weakest American League playoff field of the 21st Century and the M’s jumped out to a 2-0 series lead before playing a single game at T-Mobile Park, this was the easiest path possible for baseball’s most cursed franchise. And once again, there will be at least another 12 months of that tagline of “the only MLB team to not make the World Series.”
Everyone will focus on what happened in Game 7. It is completely, 100% natural. The pitching decisions in the seventh inning will follow Wilson until either the Mariners win a pennant or he is no longer managing the team. But the Mariners didn’t lose the series in Game 7. They had a clear path to getting things over with earlier and just simply didn’t get the job done.
The irony of the starting rotation
After making the postseason in 2022, the Mariners missed out in 2023 and 2024 despite stellar — and historic — efforts from their starting rotation.
If it felt like the M’s were squandering an incredible rotation, it’s because they did. They couldn’t stop striking out at the plate and they couldn’t score enough runs to get into the playoffs, even with three Wild Card spots available.
Late in 2024, Wilson took over as manager and got Edgar Martinez to return to the dugout to lead the hitters. The results were good over the last month-plus of the year, and the team brought in former Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer to help as well after he had a lot of success in Atlanta.
Seattle, after two years of mediocrity, improved dramatically at the dish. The pitching, however, was more good or average than great, due largely to three guys spending extended time on the injured list. But still, even with Woo ending the regular season on IL, the M’s finally got into the playoffs with the bulk of their rotation in place after missed chances in 2023 and 2024. That group did well against the Tigers in the ALDS, too.
Bryce Miller was tabbed to pitch Game 1 of the ALCS due to George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo pitching in the 15th-inning gauntlet that was Game 5 of the ALDS. He was great, pitching six innings and allowing one run. He later tossed four innings of one-run ball in Game 5. The Mariners won both of Miller’s starts.
Seattle lost four of the other five games, though. The Mariners’ starting rotation — not counting Woo’s two relief appearances — had a 6.59 ERA. If you take out Miller’s two starts, it was 9.35.
Yuck.
The Jays don’t strike out. They put the ball in play. They’re aggressive. They hunt fastballs. There were too many instances of middle-middle cookies to their top hitters. It also took Seattle until Game 7 to realize you need to pitch inside to Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.
A rotation that kept the Mariners in the postseason hunt the last two years failed them in the franchise’s clearest path to the World Series. Castillo pitched 2 1/3 innings in Game 3 after being the man at home this year. Kirby got shelled for eight runs in Game 4. Gilbert gave up eight runs in seven innings in two starts.
Again, people will focus on Game 7 because it’s the last game and it’s the natural thing to do. Since Kirby pitched four innings of one-run ball, these total numbers will get glossed over, as will the incredibly crooked numbers we saw the Jays put up in Games 3 and 4 against Seattle’s arms. But there are three critical reasons the Mariners didn’t win this series despite having a 2-0 lead heading into Game 3, and this is 1-A.
RISP nightmare
And this is 1-B.
The Mariners’ recipe all season long to score runs was the long ball. They were top five in MLB in homers, and they had the highest percentage of runs scored via homers in 2025.
They hit homers in the playoffs. They hit homers in the ALCS, including two in Game 7. They did not manufacture runs besides that, though. And they didn’t get enough homers or extra-base hits with runners on base.
Overall, Seattle was 9-42 with runners in scoring position this series and left 42 runners on base. The M’s got five of those hits (in 19 at-bats) in the first two games of the series. From Games 3-7, the Mariners went 4-23 with RISP.
The M’s had two blowouts go against them in Games 3 and 4, but they had chances in both Games 6 and 7, going 1-10 with RISP and leaving 13 men on base and hitting into a ton of double plays.
Jays arms didn’t face nearly as much traffic as they should have, and the Mariners let them off the hook with runners on thanks to strikeouts and double plays.
Game 7 was a frustrating one at the dish despite vibes being relatively high with a two-run lead with nine outs to go. After Cal Raleigh’s fifth-inning home run extended Seattle’s lead to 3-1, the Mariners got just three baserunners on the rest of the game. All of those baserunners came in the seventh inning via walks, but Julio Rodriguez, who scored two runs and hit a homer, grounded into a double play. And after walks to Raleigh and Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco grounded out to end the add-on opportunity.
After that? The Jays scored three in the bottom of the seventh and Seattle went 0-6 the rest of the way with no baserunners. Adding insult to injury, Leo Rivas and Rodriguez each swung at ball 4 in 3-2 counts to strike out in the ninth, with Rodriguez’s out being the last out of the series. The M’s needed one runner to reach in the ninth to get Raleigh up to the dish, but the ALCS ended with MLB’s home run leader standing in the on-deck circle of the stadium he mashes in.
The Mariners took some massive steps forward offensively this year, and homers are huge in October. But pairing homers with getting the ball in play in a meaningful way (IE avoiding the double play ball that killed them in Games 6 and 7) is huge. It’s where Naylor and Polanco were nice additions to a strikeout-prone lineup. Those two are free agents, as is Game 5 hero Eugenio Suarez.
The bulk of Seattle’s top players will return for 2026, but how the rest of the roster, especially the lineup, looks remains to be seen. Whether it’s Naylor and/or Polanco or other names, getting impact bats who minimize strikeouts still needs to be a priority here. When you hit .214 for the series with RISP, under .200 with RISP from Games 3-7 and get Colorado Rockies-level numbers from your All-Star-filled rotation, it’s nearly impossible to win a best-of-seven against top teams. When you look at the RISP and starting pitching numbers, it’s almost a miracle Seattle saw a Game 7 in the first place.
Bottom of the order hits rock bottom
The Mariners’ lineup was top-heavy in the ALCS. Rodriguez, Raleigh, Naylor and Polanco did basically all of the heavy lifting this series. Suarez, hitting sixth most of the series, had one big game. Randy Arozarena, a former playoff hero in Tampa Bay, was a free out basically all postseason and was moved down in the order by the end of the ALCS.
Your worst hitters typically hit 7-9 no matter what, but to win in the postseason, you need contributions up and down the lineup. The bottom of the Blue Jays’ order killed the Mariners, be it by getting big hits and driving in runs or simply getting on base as the lineup turned over and eventually scoring runs. The latter was the case in the seventh inning of Game 7 ahead of Springer’s game-winning homer. Toronto’s 7-9 hitters got on base at a .314 clip and OPSed over .800 in these seven games.
Dominic Canzone was horrific this postseason. Victor Robles didn’t offer much, either. J.P. Crawford didn’t do what we’re used to seeing as a veteran bat who grinds ABs, works walks and uses the whole field. Rivas, outside of his magical Game 5 hit in the ALDS, looked exactly like a guy who’s been in the minors for parts of 10 seasons.
All in all, hitters 7-9 went 8-71 in the ALCS for the Mariners — “good” for a .113 batting average. They killed rallies, struck out too often, yielded unproductive outs and failed to turn things over to the lineup’s big bats. Yes, those are your worst hitters, but this is October — you need something from those guys to keep the line moving.
When you live and die by the homer, you at least need to get some more guys on base. That really wasn’t the case with the bottom of the order, which is extra magnified considering the Jays’ bottom-of-the-order bats made life miserable for Seattle pitching, kickstarting rallies in Games 3, 4, 6 and 7, all of which the Mariners lost.
So what’s next?
Well, we now wait and see if the Dodgers or Blue Jays are the next world champs. M’s fans probably won’t care either way. If the Jays win, you lost to the champs. Hooray? If the Dodgers win, the team you just fell to doesn’t get the glory.
Do you really have a preference here? As Brad Pitt as Billy Beane said in “Moneyball”: “If you lose the last game of the season, nobody gives a shit.”
This offseason will be an interesting one. Naylor, Polanco and Suarez are all free agents while the rest of Seattle’s top players are all under contract through at least the end of next year.
The big questions that won’t be answered for a while:
Does payroll increase after an ALCS Game 7 appearance?
With player salaries increasing either through arbitration (Arozarena, Kirby, etc.) or naturally while extended players get deeper into their contracts (Rodriguez, Raleigh, Crawford, Castillo), will ownership let the team keep their main pieces together and add?
If salary remains stagnant, does Seattle aim to move on from one or both of Castillo or Crawford to shed salary?
Will the Mariners sign any one, two or even three of Naylor, Polanco or Suarez? And should they?
Does Seattle aim to add another leverage arm or two after how taxed the main arms were and after making a run at Jhoan Duran at the trade deadline?
And those are just the easy roster/payroll questions to note.
On the coaching side, ownership won’t fire Wilson, a franchise icon, after a successful season, but does he want to return? What about Martinez, who was in the dugout far more than expected this year despite being in a large-scale role rather than just a hitting coach position? Do they lose any coaches like Manny Acta or Kristopher Negron to other staffs or even managerial openings? Does infield guru Perry Hill, now 73, retire?
It’s easy to say that you got here now, so you will return. I covered Game 3 of the ALDS in person back in 2022 when Seattle lost 1-0 in 18 innings. I was there in the clubhouse after that marathon ended. The Mariners had a ton of young core players there who were rookies or in just their second MLB seasons. The main thought I kept hearing? “This is just the start. We got here this year, and we’ll do it again.”
The Mariners know all too well that’s not the case, be it 2022 or further back to 1995 or 2001.
Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander deserve some credit for how they put this roster together, especially at the deadline. But there are a ton of questions that duo will need to navigate this offseason, especially if ownership doesn’t reinvest into the product after a deep playoff run.
While it’s easy to think that John Stanton and Co. will, the Mariners ranked 22nd in payroll in 2022 at $113 million, per Spotrac, and only increased things to $127 million for 2023, even with a young core locked into rookie deals or team-friendly extensions.
These questions will be answered later on, but these questions could have been saved for later if the Mariners won two games in five tries.